Model vs market
How the model's probabilities compare with the market reference on settled matches. Lower RPS is better.
| League | Matches | Model RPS | Market RPS | Gap | Top pick |
|---|
Live ledger since –
How accurate is the market?
De-vigged closing implied probabilities from Champions League and Europa League matches. If the market were perfectly calibrated, every pair of bars would coincide.
Market figures are de-vigged average closing prices and are shown for comparison only.
Market deviations
1X2 probabilities from the model vs the market reference, ranked by the largest gap.
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Gap |
|---|
Market reference: de-vigged median of the latest quoted prices across bookmakers, shown for comparison only.
Goal spread lines
Coverage probability from the model's score matrix vs the market reference, by line.
| Match | Line | Model | Market ref | Gap |
|---|